Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Google Public Data Explorer

Here. World Development Indicators are available!

Monday, February 22, 2010

Natural Experiments of History - Diamond and Robinson (ed.)

Jared Diamond ("Guns Germs and Steel") and James Robinson ("Reversal of Fortune" with Acemoglu and Johnson) have edited the book. The table of contents is impressive!:
1. Controlled Comparison and Polynesian Cultural Evolution
Patrick V. Kirch
2. Exploding Wests: Boom and Bust in Nineteenth-Century Settler Societies
James Belich
3. Politics, Banking, and Economic Development: Evidence from New World Economies
Stephen Haber
4. Intra-Island and Inter-Island Comparisons
Jared Diamond
5. Shackled to the Past: The Causes and Consequences of Africa's Slave Trades
Nathan Nunn
6. Colonial Land Tenure, Electoral Competition, and Public Goods in India
Abhijit Banerjee and Lakshmi Iyer
7. From Ancien Régime to Capitalism: The Spread of the French Revolution as a Natural Experiment
Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson
* Afterword: Using Comparative Methods in Studies of Human History
Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Physics envy

"Any scientist who doesn’t have physics envy is an idiot."

J.M. Epstein in REMARKS ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF AGENT-BASED
GENERATIVE SOCIAL SCIENCE. (HT Bernardo Furtado)

Friday, February 19, 2010

Thursday, February 18, 2010

The first law of development

There is no street children where tap water is safe.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Sunday, February 7, 2010

New movies

  • Moon (2009)-a retro sci-fi movie. Kevin Spacey is the voice of the computer Hal Sam.
  • The invention of lying - At first glance, it is another feel-good movie from Hollywood. It is not. Thanks, Ricky Gervais.
  • Flood with love for the kid. A one man remake of do Rambo First Blood (!?!?!?). The critics say it is great.
Bonus track: how to watch Daily Show and the Office outside the US.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Netbook and Windows 7

Surprisingly, Windows 7 runs quite well in my new Lenovo S10-3t with only 1G of RAM.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Droughts, Floods and Financial Distress in the United States

Droughts, Floods and Financial Distress in the United States
John Landon-Lane, Hugh Rockoff, Richard H. Steckel
NBER Working Paper No. 15596*
Issued in December 2009
NBER Program(s): DAE
The relationships among the weather, agricultural markets, and financial markets have long been of interest to economic historians, but relatively little empirical work has been done. We push this literature forward by using modern drought indexes, which are available in detail over a wide area and for long periods of time to perform a battery of tests on the relationship between these indexes and sensitive indicators of financial stress. The drought indexes were devised by climate historians from instrument records and tree rings, and because they are unfamiliar to most economic historians and economists, we briefly describe the methodology. The financial literature in the area can be traced to William Stanley Jevons, who connected his sun spot theory to rainfall patterns. The Dust bowl of the 1930s brought the climate-finance link to the attention of the general public. Here we assemble new evidence to test various hypotheses involving the impact of extreme swings in moisture on financial stress.
I would like to test Mike Davis' thesis that severe droughts in the end of the XIX century put the Brazilian Northeast in a poverty trap.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Ramsey and Kant

Dixit writes about a tale that Samuelson told him:

"On his first day as an undergraduate at Cambridge, Ramsey went to his philosophy tutor Ogden, to discuss some ideas he had about essence and being. After listening, Ogden said, “These notions are rather like those of Kant.” “Kant? Who is he?” “Immanuel Kant was the author of this book I’ll lend you, Kritik der reinen Vernunft.” “But it’s in German, sir, and I don’t know any German.” “That’s all right, I’ll lend you this dictionary.” A couple of weeks later Ramsey came back to Ogden saying “Kant has it almost right, but …” "

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Chinese Amazon.com

Google toolbar in firefox allows you to browse Chinese Amazon . Take care. The "Flirting apparatus" section is NSFW.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Links

Superrationally

Creativity: here and here. (via boing boing)

Friday, January 8, 2010

Two quotes that I will repeat as mine

"I started this blog because my wife wanted me to stop telling her all my ideas, and this was a cheap way to communicate with all my friends in academia." (So did I!)
"I think it's important to know what you don't know. When you know that you don't know something, the answer is to experiment!"
From the interview of Matthew Kahn's, the urban and environmental economist (via Marginal Revolution).
(BTW, he is married to Dora Costa, the brilliant economic historian.)

Monday, January 4, 2010

Friday, January 1, 2010

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Thursday, December 24, 2009

4 Nobel Prize winners in São Paulo

...and several top researchers:Second Brazilian Workshop of the Game Theory Society. (Thanks, Vanessa Nadalin)

Off-line

I am on vacations and I'll stay off-line for one month. However, there are post are programmed. Stay tuned! BTW, this is my Xmas gift to you.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Dafen

Dafen (China): 8,000 painters in 4 km^2 produce 5 million paintings/year. Picasso, Van Gogh, and Leonardo are reproduced at an industrial scale. More here. A sophisticated studio in Dafen.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

New season of More or Less

My favorite rádio show presented by Tim Harford. Download it now because each episode is available for just one week.

Hyperinflation in ZImbabwe

The Zimbabwean dollar has gone, but this picture depicts its inglorious end.

Via boingboing.
UPDATE: Thomas Kang is a trillionaire!

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Malaria in 1870 USA

Darker shades represent places with a higher share of malaria victims among the dead. It could reach almost 18% in some counties.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Science is interesting

NYT Year in Ideas. There are a whole bunch of amazing things. From studies on racial discrimination on football to ultimatum game played by drunks.
(If you disagree with the title of the post , then....)

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Off-topic

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

All the flights of the world

24 hours in 72 seconds. (I can not even guess the size of the W matrix!)
Ideas that I am not going to carry out: do the same thing with Eltis data on slave trade.

Friday, November 6, 2009

The Economist's New Clothes

This BBC 4 radio show about the 2009 crisis has interviews with Quah, Scholes e Thaler. (The presenter is quite simplistic, but it is a nice show anyway)

Friday, October 30, 2009

Mainstream Plurocracy

I came across the expression "mainstream plurodoxy" while reading this paper by David Colander (hat tip Shikida). I think it quite a neat way to describe modern economics:
By plurodoxy, I mean a mainstream that has no orthodoxy, neoclassical or other. It is a mainstream composed of many different competing beliefs and research programs...
Today, the problem facing all heterodox groups, Austrians included, is that much of what they were fighting against no longer exists, if it ever did exist. Any orthodoxy that may have existed back in the 1970s has been replaced by a mainstream plurocracy.
I think that the concept is a "sequel" of his paper 2000 paper "The Death of Neoclassical Economics"

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Saturday, October 24, 2009

I love XKCD

Maybe I've been working to much with R, but I love this XKCD tribute:

Thursday, October 22, 2009

The role of rats and beer in Economic History

Economic History Blog is an excellent blog and also entertaining. Recently the author came across rat furs (!?!?!?!!?) exports from Manhattan to the Netherlands. In another post, he argues that beer may have caused the Industrial Revolution.

G R Elton - The Practice of History

It is an great book on the theory and practice of History. Geoffrey Elton is such an amazing writer, it almost reads like poetry. The first paragraph:
"The future is dark, the present burdensome; only the past, dead and finished, bears contemplation. Those who look upon it have survived it: they are its product and its victors. No wonder, therefore, that men concern themselves with history.
"

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Netlogo

My friend Bernardo Furtado convinced me that Netlogo is pretty cool. He showed me a bunch of impressive simulations, but one really got me: Von Thünen model.

Links

Video: Robert Allen:Why was the Industrial Revolution British?. (via Brad Delong)
Gapminder now holds data on food production and regional inequality. (via Marginal Revolution)
Anti-capitalist soviet posters were amazing! (via BoingBoing)
Art ?? (via BoingBoing)

Monday, October 12, 2009

Kindle international version

Amazon says it will ship the new Kindle worldwide!

Friday, October 9, 2009

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Tax on innumeracy is well spent

Britain's National Lotery will help Bletchley Park. Cory Doctorow points the irony : innumerates fund the preservation of the memory of the geniuses of the past.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Qgis

Qgis is an open-source alternative to Arcview, specially when you install the plug-ins.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Cliometrica

A new number of the French journal. I have not read it yet (as usual), but the titles of the papers called my attention (e.g. "Fallacious convergence? Williamson’s real wage comparisons under scrutiny")

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

More or less

Is there any other radio show where you can listen to Hal Varian (talking about statistics) and Andrew Gelman ("Do beautiful parents have more daughters?")?
Now the full archives of the show are available on-line!

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

I envy Ed Glaeser

I confess. In one year he has posted ten new (and excellent, I am sure) papers in his web page! Besides, he is a great writer. Check out his review of the book on the quarrel between Robert Moses and Jane Jacobs.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Cofffe and Sugar

Hans-Joachim Voth and Jonathan Hersh estimate that the introduction of coffee and sugar led to a 10% increase in welfare. They say that the stagnant wages before 1800 is a distortion caused by the exclusion of these goods from price indexes. Their method of estimation seems very interesting. Two phrases:
"Half of all spending was on beer and bread, and fully three-quarters of all calories came from these two sources alone."
"The reason why seemingly mundane goods like sugar, coffee and tea made a big difference to living standards is that life was not just “nasty, brutish, and short” at their time of introduction – it was also (in culinary terms) grey, boring, and bland."

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

I will not tag this post as "Humor"

Via Mankiw

Napoleon in Russia

Drawn by Charles Minard (1869), the thickness of the lines indicates the size of Napoleon's army on his way to Moscow (1812-1813). Quite macabre, but it is a beautiful graph anyway.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Salsa Dancing into the Social Sciences: Research in an Age of Info-glut

Following Tyler Cowen's suggestion, I bought Salsa Dancing into the Social Sciences: Research in an Age of Info-glut at Amazon. When it arrived, I sadly realized that it had no tables, graphs or equation and it was full of references to Foucault.
To my own suprise, I loved the book. It is an amazing guide to serious qualitative research in the social sciences and Kristin Luker is a terrific writer. Strongly recommended.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Do not complain when you are stuck on an airport

In 1850:
- The cost of a coast to coast trip in the USA was around US$200 (about US$ 5000 in 2008 dollars), around half of the income of an unskilled worker. The trip took between 4 and 6 months. (On the other hand, a ticket from Sweden to New York was around US$ 17-25 and took less than a couple of months.)
Source: Clay, Karen e Jones, Randall Jones. Migration to Riches from the California Gold Rush. The Journal of Economic History, v.68, n.4, Dec 2008, p. 997-1027

Saturday, July 18, 2009

On vacation

A two-week break. I am going to be off-line, unplugged and disconnected until the end of July.
All the best!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

French Revolution and Napoleon as natural experiments

Acemoglu, Cantoni, Johnson e Robinson state that the regions invaded by the French grew faster than other areas . ( Maybe an Olsonian mechanism could explain this fact...)
BTW, bon 14 juillet à tous!

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Jeffrey Williamson talks

The scholar talks about the crucial themes on economic history: long term growth, globalization(s), divergence/convergence, immigration, and everything else.

(The editors of the journal also publish the blog Oxonomics.)

Friday, July 3, 2009

The José Mindlin Library on Brazil

Tons of rare books and manuscripts are available on-line. The site is in Portuguese, but there are several documents in English, French and German.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Internet is for Porn

Yes, it is true. But you can also watch the LSE lectures of Krugman, Bernanke, Quah, Richard Thaler, Paul Collier...

Monday, June 1, 2009

Paris



(By Arnaldo Interata 04/28/2009)

Software Tips

- I gave up Remember the Milk and moved to Google Tasks (5 additional ways to access it);
- Quantum GIS, the open source alternative to ArcView.
- Go-oo, an Open Office upgrade. HT Renato Colistete. (If you use Ubuntu there is no need to upgrade.)

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Industrial Revolution. Why Europe and not China? Why Britain?

Two new explanations:
-Hans-Joachim Voth (et alii) says that the reason lies in the emergence of the European Marriage Pattern . (BTW, Voth creates amazing papers' titles)
- Robert Allen asserts that trade created the conditions for the British Industrial Revolution: high wages and cheap energy. (The book with the full story is here. The Economist reviews it here).

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

European Slaves in Africa

I know that human trafficking was quite common during the poor, nasty, brutish, and long human history. However, this really have surprised me:
"According to one estimate, 7,000 English people were abducted between 1622-1644, many of them ships' crews and passengers. But the corsairs also landed on unguarded beaches, often at night, to snatch the unwary.
Almost all the inhabitants of the village of Baltimore, in Ireland, were captured in 1631, and there were other raids in Devon and Cornwall."
It seems that one million Europeans (an overestimation, some may say) were slaved by North African pirates between 1530 and 1780. More about the subject.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Google Maps + Time Machine

Be prepared to spend more than 8 hours just in Hypercities.
(Zephyr Frank and Sidney Chalhoub were (are?) working on something similar for Rio de Janeiro)
Via Wired.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

56th Annual North American Regional Science Association Conference

Here.

Consumer surplus

To whom it may concern: atemoya (2 USD/kg in Brazil) generates the highest consumer surplus possible (at least for me).
UPDATE: The price fell to 1,5 USD/kg!!!

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Rodrik X Easterly on Industrial Policy and Steady Growth

William Easterly nailed it!
"So here is Dani Rodrik on success and industrial policy: “the countries that have produced steady, long-term growth during the last six decades are those that relied on a different strategy: promoting diversification into manufactured … goods” (cited in Economist’s View).

So Dani concludes, “What matters [for growth in developing countries] is their output of modern industrial goods” and that developing countries will have to get busy with “real industrial policies.” Finally, “external policy actors (for example, the World Trade Organization) will have to be more tolerant of these policies.”

Unfortunately, Dani is also REVERSING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. Dani’s evidence is based on what he believes is the high probability that IF you have had steady growth for six decades, THEN you had industrial policy. This is interesting, but this is not the right probability in deciding whether to choose industrial policy, which is “IF you have industrial policy, THEN what is your chance of steady growth for six decades?
"

HT Brad DeLong.

"It is the economy, companheiro!": an empirical analysis of Lula's re-election based on municipal data

by Araújo Jr, Carraro, Damé, Shikida and me in the Economics Bulletin
This paper discusses the reasons that led to the Lula's 2006 re-election. Spatial analysis methods revealed that,contrary to 2002, the President had more votes in less developed municipalities of Brazil. The econometric results cast doubt on the analyses that attribute to Bolsa Família Programme total responsibility for the re-election. Lula''s electoral success results from changes in the labor market, low inflation and an export boom that have reduced inequality and
improved the real wages of the Brazilian poor.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Moving II

By the end of the month, I am leaving UFABC and I will join IPEA, the Brazilian Institute of Applied Economics, in Brasília.

Unfair competition

When people say "unfair competition" they usually mean a) "I not understand comparative advantages"; b) "I have vested interest in protectionism. However in this situation "unfair competition" is an understatement.

The Credit Crunch of 1294

MCCXCIV !

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Economist should be despised

Hayek said that Marshall said:
Students of social science, must fear popular approval: Evil is with
them when all men speak well of them
’.

(Strangely I could not find the exact reference. Maybe Hayek was just like Keynes, who had the habit of making up quotations.)

Friday, May 8, 2009

Is the crisis over? (II)

I hope it is. But I think it is kind of sad that one of the boldest forecasts is based just on a historic correlation. There is no model or explanatory theory.

Carlo Cipolla and Stupidity

The famous Italian historian Carlo Cipolla - quite surprisingly - stated the basic laws of stupidity.
I do believe that the root of all human suffering is stupidity, not evilness and not evil. Maybe I am wrong but this idea comforts me
Via Marginal Revolution.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Why Ubuntu?

In order to protect my tired madelung wrists, I gave up my dear T61 and I've bought a desktop and an ergonomic keyboard. Pretty cool machine, but it took me a couple of hours to remove the bloatware from Windows Vista.
Yesterday I installed the new Ubuntu. One hour later, everything was working perfectly, including the microsoft keyboard and the all-in-one printer. It took me 30 extra minutes to install all extra software. (In Ubuntu world you just choose the softwares that you want from a list. It downloads, installs and tracks new versions No need for going to each website and clicking "I accept" a thousand times). Awesome.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Ulisses M. Ruiz de Gamboa, a cliometrician

Strangely, the works of Ulisses were flying under my radar. He's been working with historical Brazilian public finance for many years and now he and William Summerhill are uncovering "fiscal skeletons".
I met him last week and found out that, besides being technically sophisticated, he is a nice guy!

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

I'm back...

The conference was great. It was terrific to spend 3 days among economic historians. Soon I will write posts about the work of the colleagues that I met there.
Now I am back to real life. Yet no symptoms of the flu.
(By the way, the post bellow was already scheduled before the outbreak. Just plain coincidence.)