Homicides in Rio: a review of the data

I am so sorry. Back in February I wrote about the sharp fall of the homicide rate in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Daniel Cerqueira, an IPEA economist , has just found out that the data is seriously flawed (in Portuguese). Check Graph 4.2.  From 2006 on, there was a huge increase of violent deaths with "unknown causes" and the victims have demographic profiles strangely similar to the victims of homicides. True, homicide rates have fallen, but it was not as sharp as the official data shows.

The Stature of Brazilians (1957-1987)

It seems that the 80's crisis hit the biological living standards of Brazilians. Shikida, Nogueról  and I are writing an updated version of our  paper using new data. The graph below show the heights of adult males by year of birth.

Brazilian States Renamed for Countries with Similar GDPs

Here by The Economist. Back in 2007 Davi Zell and I tried to make a similar map. But I must admit that the Economist one is much better. (The original idea, as far as I know, comes from strange maps.)

Is manufacturing indispensable?

Chang versus Bhagwati. I voted "No".

World Cup in Brazil - a simple proposal

The event will cost about USD 15 billion to Brazilian taxpayers. Proposal: transfer the World Cup to England. Half of the money saved would be shared among 100,000 winners of a national lottery. Each would receive USD 75,000 and would receive the patriotic mission of cheering for Brazil in Wembley.
The other half of the money would be spent in extravagant stuff, such as health and education.

Statistically useless jobs

Here.
XKCD provides the perfect cartoon:

Links

-Natural experiments that should not be replicated :The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam; (HT Rafael);
- Sometimes culture matters: Anti-Semitic during the Black Death were most likely to acts of violence against Jews in interwar Germany);
- Journals: advices to editors and authors (Via Marginal Revolution. BTW, how come someone disagrees with the fact that MR is the best Economics blog ?!?!?);
- The Economist on the Brazilian North-east . Accurate facts, but the tone is a little bit too optimistic.

Long thumbnails and development

This also happened in Brazil!
(HT Shikida)

Bureaucratics - Pictures of civil servants all over the world

Bureaucratics - Images by Jan Banning
(HT João Veloso).

Xie Xie, China

Total exports by Brazilian region in US$ (1995=100)

(HT Batistuta).

Cliometrics and regional economics news

• 5tas Jornadas Uruguayas de Historia Económica;
• 58th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, 2011.
• Número novo da Cliometrica!

(I would like to apologize to my 1,232,543 readers. I've been too busy to post in the last couple of weeks).

The prices must be crazy

Badly written pricing algorithms can generate quite strange results: a $23,698,655.93 book. (via boingboing)

The Surface of Consumption

This is a photograph of a model that Prof. Irving Fisher used in his classes. Beautiful.

I promise that I will stop complaining when I can not get the right colors in my scatterplots.
Source: Frisch, R. 1932. New methods of measuring marginal utility. Tubingen: J. C. B. Mohr. p. 16.

Chinese Ghost Cities?

Some say they are dead. Other people say that this is not exactly the case.
All right, I volunteer to fly to China and check it myself . Please, cable the money.

"Brazil's achievements and Challenges" by Luiz de Melo

An excellent introduction to Brazilian contemporary economic issues with emphasis on macroeconomics and the educational problems. (HT José Roberto Afonso).

How unequal is Brazil?

A lot. The table bellow shows monthly family income per capita by percentile. (Yes, it includes Bolsa Família, the cash based transfer program that reaches 11 million families).

Percentile	R$	US$
5	53	33
10	100	62
50	375	233
90	1300	807
95	2000	1242
99	4650	2888
Source: PNAD (IBGE, 2009)

1,61 BRL=1 USD (the current exchange rate).

5th Spatial Econometrics Conference

Ici.

Brasília for Tourists

Brasília is not as human unfriendly as it looks for the first time visitor. I guess that the best thing to do is to take a walk on its Superquadras, like SQS 308, and feel how it is to live here. The main tourist attractions are just there: Congresso Nacional, Palácio Itamaraty, Catedral and so on... Catetinho, the temporary home of the president during the construction of the capital, is far from the center and holds a small exhibition about the city. Interesting, but it appeals only to the Architecture/Brazilian history fans. Skip it if you do not have time to spare.

Brasília is not a place for foodies, but here is my list of restaurants

• Ethnic or International: Despite all the embassies, the demographics is pretty homogeneous, so ethnic and international restaurants - in general - should be avoided. Palace Long Fu(Chinese) at Academia de Tênis is OK. Pretty much the same thing that you can find at an average restaurant in China. Servus is an Austrian restaurant in the countryside. The restaurant, almost hidden, is located about 40 minute away from the center of Brasilia near Tororó Falls. The owner speaks English and can give instructions. Opens on Saturdays and Sundays. Reservations are strongly recommended (Phone 3339-6180).

• Brazilian Barbecue: Porcão and Fogo de Chão. The branches in Brasília offer the same top quality as everywhere else.
• Regional (Northeast) food : Mangai is the one that everybody knows and recommends. It is pretty good, but my choice is Macambira (SCRLN 714 bloco F loja 22). The place is tiny, not well located and opens just for lunch. It is not as good as Mocotó (in São Paulo), but the idea is quite the same.Tia Zélia, Lula's favourite (people say), is just fine (Opens for lunch on Mondays to Fridays).
  
• I've never been to Aquavit (Scandinavian). The prices are comparable to two-star restaurants in France. I will wait for the next Brazilian currency crisis to visit the place.:-)
• Places to avoid: Beirute for its bad food, and Zuu , overpriced.

"Development Strategy or Endogenous Process? The Industrialization of Latin America" by Stephen Haber

Latin American industrialization was not a deliberate choice of the elites, or a long term strategy of development.
"Beginning in the 1890s the largest economies of Latin America conducted a 100- year experiment in which they built tremendous manufacturing sectors behind barriers to trade. This experiment was not carried out because public officials were ideologically committed to industrialization or because of economic theories that challenged free trade. Indeed, the growth of large scale manufacturing industry pre-dated structuralist theories by 60 years. Rather, Latin America’s industrialization was kick started by an endogenous process of economic development whose roots were found in the growth of the so-called export economy. Once industrialists got a foothold they lost no time in seeking tariff protection. Governments granted this protection because it came at virtually no political cost: the one class that stood to lose from trade protection, consumers, had no political voice. The result was that by 1914 all of the larger countries of Latin America had become increasingly protectionist, and were undergoing a rapid process of industrial growth.
(...)
The process of Latin American industrial development was always ad hoc. Governments did not grant trade protection because they were committed to a particular vision of industrial development. They did it because they were rewarding politically powerful constituents, some of whom were industrialists and some of whom The process of Latin American industrial development was always ad hoc. Governments did not grant trade protection because they were committed to a particular vision of industrial development. They did it because they were rewarding politically powerful constituents, some of whom were industrialists and some of whom were industrial unions."
This is music to my ears!

Aelita: the Queen of Mars (1924) or Chavez was (almost) right

In fact, Socialism saved the Martian civilization! The DVD says:

Russia's first big budget science fiction spectacular. "Aelita, the Queen of Mars" is a fantastic adventure about Los, an engineer living in Moscow who dreams of Aelita and builds a spaceship to take him to her. They fall in love, but Los soon finds himself embroiled in a proletarian uprising to establish a Martian Union of Soviet Socialist Republics!

Youtube has the movie in 9 parts.